Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 757.278247 853.854205 961.696004 1091.734869 1245.204337 1421.693182 1641.645887
2025-02-09 618.533903 746.286934 902.195004 1109.286389 1381.479280 1733.333308 2233.257059
2025-02-16 534.442076 672.358750 850.326475 1102.064589 1457.882726 1957.281475 2739.013832
2025-02-23 487.769166 635.067193 834.160516 1131.288081 1578.882350 2255.661231 3416.276577
2025-03-02 452.360833 606.238205 822.596806 1160.899446 1700.287962 2573.547004 4207.134140
2025-03-09 418.057126 573.830892 800.196426 1168.465676 1785.335119 2846.834534 4998.689971
2025-03-16 384.992094 539.087938 769.302044 1156.721360 1834.107770 3064.730736 5750.525624
2025-03-23 363.939483 519.763396 759.072619 1175.812624 1937.341218 3402.103389 6865.765055
2025-03-30 334.316820 484.361556 719.498547 1139.491371 1932.897947 3527.414334 7544.963369
2025-04-06 309.195524 453.827457 684.688737 1106.774660 1929.203423 3652.198022 8269.779198
2025-04-13 286.040633 424.592422 649.313304 1068.667888 1908.542579 3735.309492 8918.315768
2025-04-20 277.919001 419.054558 653.149159 1102.829738 2039.638062 4191.922736 10845.300860
2025-04-27 267.197628 408.959895 649.201658 1123.853775 2151.885936 4647.847235 13087.215220
2025-05-04 256.178835 397.592462 642.113374 1138.258063 2253.765536 5113.118583 15706.331194
2025-05-11 243.220618 381.829947 625.521908 1131.106761 2304.396261 5456.215893 18128.149987
2025-05-18 236.365704 376.168748 626.905482 1161.298182 2450.560302 6123.489155 22549.744508
2025-05-25 230.036935 370.910587 628.457309 1191.926498 2604.514027 6875.118551 28249.773221
2025-06-01 221.512568 361.034284 620.193415 1199.753021 2700.780800 7478.847391 33961.149487
2025-06-08 211.469364 347.687901 604.003446 1187.604606 2740.535729 7904.227675 39209.419425
2025-06-15 205.528690 341.572898 601.684069 1207.353384 2874.954607 8740.139377 48847.416150
2025-06-22 194.297433 324.795771 576.483121 1169.783880 2834.507811 8877.833969 53222.400046
2025-06-29 184.234885 309.711428 553.756785 1135.952553 2800.026740 9033.465150 58182.404710
2025-07-06 174.335030 294.444582 529.696385 1096.559455 2742.312364 9074.432785 62250.660829